In 2004 when Kerry was slightly up in the polls against Bush, right around this time, a couple of weeks out, pundits and MSM anchors could be heard asking ad nauseum:
"SO...... WILL there be an October surprise?" IF there IS an October surprise....WHAT on earth could it be???"
I remember hearing this for at least two weeks before election day. I remember because it was Driving. Me. NUTS.
Then suddenly..four days before the election...(cue ominous music)a Bin Laden tape emerges, it was played over and over again.. statements were made by each campaign..and suddennly there was a collective gasp around the nation and a hushed reverence and nationwide chill ran up the entire electorate's spine, and no one EVER AGAIN uttered the words "October Surprise"..
Likewise, in 2008, we are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel in this race. With Bush and Cheney still running our government (yes remember that?) I posit that we should not only anticipate, but should fully EXPECT something along the lines of a Bin Laden tape to emerge. It's the only arrow they have left in their quiver. Think: if they are not going to use Reverend Wright, what else have they got?
We all know that Obama has been taking this possibility very seriously. Security issues are one of the few remaining areas where McCain still polls better than Obama, but there is one factor I thought about in 04 that I have been pondering this time around:
"OK, Bin Laden made a tape...So why do we have to air it?"
When I say "we" I assume that it will find it's way into the mainstream media somehow (cough cough Fox News). But who says that we MUST air this tape? The government? The press? The adminsitration? AL QAEDA?
Thanks to the US Attorney scandal, it has become widely known that it is against policy for US attorneys to initiate investigations into political candidates for 30 days before an election as it would be/could be seen as an attempt to "influence" the outcome of an election.
If this is against the law, how is it that blatant fear-mongering perpetrated by those in power is not?
Here are the facts:
1.) Bin Laden is alive
2.) Al Qaeda has regrouped, recruited more in the PAshtun tribal region that borders Pakistan and Afganistan (thanks to the war in Iraq)
3.) It is an agreed notion within all branches of the intelligence community that Bin Laden/Al Qaeda are definitely planning, plotting and conniving to perpetrate more attacks on America and it's interests.
4.) The only fact that is debatable is "Are they organizationally CAPABLE of carrying out an attack?"
If all this is true and we know how elections have been swayed in America and even Spain, due sadly to the worst attack perpetrated yet on European soil, why would we give Bin Laden and his Sony digital camera a platform to do so?
So here we stand: The likelihood of an attack is small. The likelihood of a halloween/October surprise tape is a virtual certainty.
I realize that my question is more retorical than literal, but what other purpose would there be to releasing a tape that Bin LAden records OTHER than to influence the outcome of our election?
Has the RNC used all of their other own out tactics during this election cycle? Do you think that a Bin Laden tape is something they could be salivating over? Hoping for? Of course they are and Bin LAden knows this. Richard Clarke said last nihgt on Countdown that Bin Laden is a "sophisicated" thinker. he knows how his messages are received. he knows how he can influence an easily shaken American public, drunk on it's own fear.
If the airing of a prospective tape is probable, can our Democratic leaders at least begin the meme that if one is released, what is the point of airing it right before the election, if for no other reason than to influence the election? Why give Bin LAden the airtime? Why NOT give Bin Laden the airtime?